IDC warns of main PC market downturn resulting from reminiscence crunch

The demand constructing out AI infrastructure has positioned on PC component makers has already led to the death of 1 consumer-facing RAM model, however a new report from the Worldwide Information Company (IDC) suggests it may have a fair worse impression on the PC business at massive. In its worst-case-scenario mannequin, the IDC predicts PC shipments may shrink by as much as 8.9 % in 2026 due to the excessive value of reminiscence.

“As a substitute of increasing typical DRAM and NAND utilized in smartphones, PCs and different client electronics, main reminiscence makers have shifted manufacturing towards reminiscence utilized in AI information facilities, corresponding to high-bandwidth (HBM) and high-capacity DDR5,” IDC writes. That is continued to drive up the value of the RAM that’s accessible for PC makers, which has naturally led to them to boost the value of their very own merchandise to remain above water. For instance, modular PC maker Framework has already had to raise prices on a few of its laptops and elements, and says “additional value and value will increase are extremely doubtless over the subsequent months.” The IDC says costs may rise by 6 to eight % in 2026 if its most pessimistic state of affairs comes true.

The timing of this RAM crunch is especially ironic as a result of promoting “AI PCs” — computer systems with neural processing models that may run AI fashions regionally — have been purported to be one of many issues pulling the PC business out of its post-pandemic hunch. As a substitute, these computer systems’ bigger RAM wants go away them extra weak to the results of the AI business itself. Computer systems aren’t the one electronics impacted, both. The IDC says the typical promoting value of a smartphone may develop by 6 to eight % in its most pessimistic state of affairs, and smartphone shipments may shrink by as a lot as 5.2 %.

Firms like Apple and Samsung, with money to spare and long-term provide agreements, may climate these increased RAM costs and preserve issues constant for a 12 months or two, in line with the IDC. For everybody else, although, the near-term is wanting far more costly, and by necessity, a lot much less adventurous.